The numbers, worn by the Bills

The Bills went 1-0, but a record is a result, not an explanation. The explanation starts with EPA/play: Buffalo-style, every snap either moved the expected score or it didn’t. The Bills offense averaged +0.300 — 4th of 32, meaning a typical snap gained about 0.30 points of expected score. Their defense allowed +0.071 per play (20th — remember, lower is better on defense).

Success rate tells you the texture: 41.8% of snaps kept them on schedule against a league average near 44%. Pair that with pace and you get identity: at 26.7 seconds a snap they ran the 7th-fastest offense of 32 — hurry-up by disposition, which inflates play volume for both teams: an over-bettor’s friend.

Raw EPA flatters teams with soft schedules, so the net rating re-solves it against opponents: +0.393est.. Multiply by the fitted 15.1 points per unit and the Bills are worth about +5.9 points against a league-average team on a neutral field — that number, plus era-fitted home field and the QB adjustment, is the whole model margin on every game card.

Playoff odds come from 10,000 simulated seasons — full scores, because tiebreakers need points. The Bills made the field in 88% of them, won the division in 56%.

Settle every game against its closing spread and you get the ATS record: 1-0, beating their number by +3.5 points per game on average. As favorites they went 1-0; as dogs 0-0. Their games went 1-0 to the over. Descriptive, not predictive — 52.38% is break-even at standard vig, and last season’s cover rate does not persist.

A concrete game: Lions at Bills, week 2, closed at BUF -5.5. On this half-numbered line a push is impossible; its ½-point at risk is 3.1% — the mass that flips outcome if the line moves. See the lattice on the game page.

Where the model margin and the market disagree, remember the disagreement entry: model-preferred sides have gone 49.93% ATS. The market is the sharper instrument; the model is the explainer.