2026 · Regular season
Week 8
Week 8: 13 games played. Jaguars produced the widest margin at 35 points; the tightest finish was Cardinals at Cowboys, decided by 3. 1 more on the slate.
Briefing5
Ravens start Lamar Jackson rather than Tyler Huntley, which the model treats as worth about 10.0 points for them.
Bills lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.210, 0.057 clear of second.
Vikings have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.220 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Titans at Bengals, where it rates Titans about 8.1 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
14 teams sit on the playoff bubble between 25% and 75%. The finest margin belongs to Seahawks at 49% across 10,000 simulations.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats are published only through 2024.
Slate
