The numbers, worn by the Lions

The Lions went 4-2, but a record is a result, not an explanation. The explanation starts with EPA/play: Buffalo-style, every snap either moved the expected score or it didn’t. The Lions offense averaged +0.144 — 3rd of 32, meaning a typical snap gained about 0.14 points of expected score. Their defense allowed +0.149 per play (32nd — remember, lower is better on defense).

Success rate tells you the texture: 49.9% of snaps kept them on schedule against a league average near 44%. Pair that with pace and you get identity: at 27.8 seconds a snap they ran the 7th-fastest offense of 32 — hurry-up by disposition, which inflates play volume for both teams: an over-bettor’s friend.

Raw EPA flatters teams with soft schedules, so the net rating re-solves it against opponents: +0.019est.. Multiply by the fitted 15.1 points per unit and the Lions are worth about +0.3 points against a league-average team on a neutral field — that number, plus era-fitted home field and the QB adjustment, is the whole model margin on every game card.

Playoff odds come from 10,000 simulated seasons — full scores, because tiebreakers need points. The Lions made the field in 61% of them, won the division in 12%.

Settle every game against its closing spread and you get the ATS record: 1-4-1, beating their number by -0.5 points per game on average. As favorites they went 1-3-1; as dogs 0-1. Their games went 5-1 to the over. Descriptive, not predictive — 52.38% is break-even at standard vig, and last season’s cover rate does not persist.

A concrete game: Saints at Lions, week 1, closed at DET -7. That line sits on a key number, so the model prices a 4.8%est. push — and ½-point at risk of 4.8%, which is why buying the half point matters here and not at 5½.

Where the model margin and the market disagree, remember the disagreement entry: model-preferred sides have gone 49.93% ATS. The market is the sharper instrument; the model is the explainer.