2013 · Week 4
Final
O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. OAK are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 18/31 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.