2013 · Week 4
Final
O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- QuestionableBrandon JenkinsLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableFred DavisTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJerome MurphyCBNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableJordan ReedTEThigh· Limited
- QuestionableKai ForbathKright Groin· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MeriweatherSShoulder· Full
- ProbableLeonard HankersonWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableRyan KerriganLBKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutMenelik WatsonTKnee· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJason HunterDEQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableLucas NixGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTerrelle PryorQBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableSio MooreLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableTracy PorterCBConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. OAK are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:30 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:35 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 10:40 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:27 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q1 3:06 | 10 | 92 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:21 | 6 | 23 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 10:59 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 7:27 | 10 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:59 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:04 | 6 | 15 | End of half | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 14:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 10:13 | 3 | 34 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:51 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 6:51 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 2:58 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q3 0:15 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:26 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 11:25 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 9:50 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 7:54 | 2 | 42 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| LV | Q4 6:59 | 8 | 59 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q4 3:23 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LV | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 17 | End of half | 24–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 18/31 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.