2025 · Week 3

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

24·41

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.035
  • 38.6%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.039
  • 6.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.91CPOE+0.67
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.03
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 5–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. WAS are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W13WAS @ LV17–15WAS
2017 · W3OAK @ WAS10–27WAS
2013 · W4WAS @ OAK24–14WAS
2009 · W14WAS @ OAK34–13WAS
2005 · W11OAK @ WAS16–13RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–WAS
WASQ1 15:00527Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 11:51446Field goal3–7
WASQ1 9:46444Turnover3–7
LVQ1 7:4934Punt3–7
WASQ1 5:231052Missed field goal3–7
LVQ1 1:2230Punt3–7
WASQ1 0:16859Field goal3–10
LVQ2 9:561085Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 4:20265Touchdown10–17
LVQ2 3:3176Punt10–17
WASQ2 0:27312Field goal10–20
LVQ3 15:003-2Punt10–20
WASQ3 12:4341Punt10–20
LVQ3 10:533-2Opp touchdown10–27
LVQ3 9:3566Punt10–27
WASQ3 5:23563Touchdown10–34
LVQ3 3:031275Touchdown16–34
WASQ4 12:571042Punt16–34
LVQ4 6:48744Turnover on downs16–34
WASQ4 4:483-11Punt16–34
LVQ4 4:20383Touchdown24–34
WASQ4 3:42346Touchdown24–41
LVQ4 2:0539End of half24–41

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith19/2928930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty17633.70
Zamir White5193.80
Geno Smith252.50
Tre Tucker144.00
Dylan Laube320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker891453
Jakobi Meyers34630
Brock Bowers45380
Dont'e Thornton Jr.24290
Jack Bech11100
Zamir White1240
Michael Mayer0100
Dylan Laube0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/2120710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy McNichols47819.51
Marcus Mariota6406.71
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11393.50
Jacory Croskey-Merritt8263.31
Deebo Samuel Sr.3186.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin34740
Luke McCaffrey33561
Zach Ertz33380
Chris Moore22250
Deebo Samuel Sr.23110
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1150
Jaylin Lane12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+3.49