2025 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.035
- 38.6%Success rate46.4%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.039
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.91CPOE+0.67
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.25Points / drive2.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. WAS are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/29 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 8 | 9 | 145 | 3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/21 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 78 | 19.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+3.49