2021 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

17·15

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.001
  • 44.8%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.08CPOE+1.92
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 5–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. LV are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3LV @ WAS24–41WAS
2017 · W3OAK @ WAS10–27WAS
2013 · W4WAS @ OAK24–14WAS
2009 · W14WAS @ OAK34–13WAS
2005 · W11OAK @ WAS16–13RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–LV
WASQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 9:39624Punt7–0
WASQ1 6:14529Punt7–0
LVQ1 3:0637Punt7–0
WASQ1 2:07620Punt7–0
LVQ2 14:001043Punt7–0
WASQ2 7:461327Punt7–0
LVQ2 1:41946Field goal7–3
WASQ2 0:0400End of half7–3
LVQ3 15:00510Punt7–3
WASQ3 11:59611Punt7–3
LVQ3 8:18771Field goal7–6
WASQ3 4:521265Touchdown14–6
LVQ4 13:28748Touchdown14–12
WASQ4 10:57828Turnover14–12
LVQ4 6:49743Field goal14–15
WASQ4 2:22744Field goal17–15
LVQ4 0:37418End of half17–15

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke23/3019621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson23883.80
Wendell Smallwood11313.00
Taylor Heinicke3103.30
Jaret Patterson122.00
Curtis Samuel2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas35481
John Bates34420
Adam Humphries45380
Antonio Gibson56231
Terry McLaurin35220
Wendell Smallwood22120
DeAndre Carter1160
Dyami Brown1160
Curtis Samuel11-10

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr28/3824900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13524.01
Derek Carr22412.00
Kenyan Drake100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow9101020
Josh Jacobs99380
Foster Moreau13340
Bryan Edwards35300
Zay Jones35210
DeSean Jackson11140
Kenyan Drake1280
Peyton Barber1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+1.80