2021 · Week 13
Final
Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
Closing spread
LV -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.001
- 44.8%Success rate45.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.08CPOE+1.92
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. LV are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/30 | 196 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/38 | 249 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 9 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.80