2017 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. WAS are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/30 | 365 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mack Brown | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 7 | 150 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.