2013 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Saints produced the widest margin at 25 points; the tightest finish was Panthers at Falcons, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Commanders start Kirk Cousins rather than Robert Griffin, which the model treats as worth about 8.4 points against them.
Bills start Thaddeus Lewis rather than EJ Manuel, which the model treats as worth about 5.2 points for them.
Chiefs start Chase Daniel rather than Alex Smith, which the model treats as worth about 0.6 points for them.
Cowboys start Kyle Orton rather than Tony Romo, which the model treats as worth about 0.7 points against them.
Broncos lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.205, 0.091 clear of second.
Seahawks have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.151 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Chiefs at Chargers, where it rates Chiefs about 12.4 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
