2009 · Week 14
Final
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
WAS lead 5–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. OAK are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/28 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Ganther | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Marcus Mason | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 4 | 50 | 2 |
| Quinton Ganther | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.