2017 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Lions produced the widest margin at 24 points; the tightest finish was Cardinals at Seahawks, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Texans start T.J. Yates rather than Tom Savage, which the model treats as worth about 2.9 points against them.
Jets start Bryce Petty rather than Josh McCown, which the model treats as worth about 9.7 points against them.
Eagles start Nick Foles rather than Carson Wentz, which the model treats as worth about 20.1 points against them.
Steelers start Landry Jones rather than Ben Roethlisberger, which the model treats as worth about 9.0 points against them.
Patriots lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.137, 0.045 clear of second.
Jaguars have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.192 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Bears at Vikings, where it rates Bears about 7.8 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
