2021 · Postseason
Week 18
Week 18: 16 games played. Cowboys produced the widest margin at 25 points; the tightest finish was Steelers at Ravens, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Broncos start Drew Lock rather than Teddy Bridgewater, which the model treats as worth about 6.2 points against them.
Eagles start Gardner Minshew rather than Jalen Hurts, which the model treats as worth about 8.1 points for them.
Ravens start Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson, which the model treats as worth about 5.5 points against them.
Browns start Case Keenum rather than Baker Mayfield, which the model treats as worth about 2.3 points against them.
Buccaneers lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.143, 0.003 clear of second.
Bills have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.112 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Colts at Jaguars, where it rates Jaguars about 12.6 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
Slate
