2025 · Postseason
Week 18
Week 18: 16 games played. Jaguars produced the widest margin at 34 points; the tightest finish was Panthers at Buccaneers, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Falcons start Kirk Cousins rather than Michael Penix, which the model treats as worth about 0.3 points against them.
Bengals start Joe Burrow rather than Joe Flacco, which the model treats as worth about 7.2 points for them.
Colts start Riley Leonard rather than Daniel Jones, which the model treats as worth about 11.4 points against them.
Packers start Clayton Tune rather than Jordan Love, which the model treats as worth about 39.8 points against them.
Patriots lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.154, 0.005 clear of second.
Seahawks have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.113 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Chargers at Broncos, where it rates Chargers about 8.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats are published only through 2024.
Slate
