Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 12/28 | 159 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.