Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:02 | 4 | 94 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:23 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:30 | 5 | 15 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:06 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:23 | 5 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:03 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:00 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:58 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:55 | 13 | 49 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q2 0:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:33 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| PIT | Q3 9:13 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| LA | Q3 6:51 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
| PIT | Q3 2:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–21 |
| LA | Q3 0:56 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 27–21 |
| PIT | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–21 |
| LA | Q4 14:13 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 33–21 |
| PIT | Q4 7:54 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 33–21 |
| LA | Q4 7:01 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 33–21 |
| PIT | Q4 5:15 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 33–21 |
| LA | Q4 3:26 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 33–21 |
| PIT | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 33–21 |
| LA | Q4 0:41 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 12/28 | 159 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.