2003 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Patriots produced the widest margin at 31 points; the tightest finish was Vikings at Cardinals, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Commanders start Tim Hasselbeck rather than Patrick Ramsey, which the model treats as worth about 2.7 points against them.
Falcons start Michael Vick rather than Doug Johnson, which the model treats as worth about 3.7 points for them.
Browns start Tim Couch rather than Kelly Holcomb, which the model treats as worth about 3.4 points against them.
Titans start Neil O'Donnell rather than Steve McNair, which the model treats as worth about 1.0 points for them.
Chiefs lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.124, 0.024 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.194 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Rams at Lions, where it rates Lions about 12.6 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
