Closing spread
STL -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutDaniel McCullersDTKnee· DNP
- OutRyan ShazierLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCortez AllenCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableCameron HeywardDEElbow· Full
- ProbableMarkus WheatonWRChest· Full
- ProbableWilliam GayCBNot Injury Related· Full
Rams
- QuestionableTodd GurleyRBKnee· Full
- ProbableChase ReynoldsRBKnee· DNP
- ProbableEugene SimsDEKnee· DNP
- ProbableJohnny HekkerPIllness· DNP
Win probability
- Rams
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 77 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:18 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 4:03 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 9–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:00 | 8 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 9–0 |
| PIT | Q2 8:15 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:52 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| PIT | Q2 2:05 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 9–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 9–3 |
| PIT | Q3 10:35 | 11 | 15 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LA | Q3 4:31 | 5 | 43 | Punt | 9–3 |
| PIT | Q3 1:05 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LA | Q4 13:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–3 |
| PIT | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LA | Q4 9:44 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q4 5:38 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 9–6 |
| LA | Q4 3:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–6 |
| PIT | Q4 2:51 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 12–6 |
| LA | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 12–6 |
| PIT | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/24 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5/6 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.