Closing spread
STL -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/24 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5/6 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.