Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/20 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
0.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.