Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:19 | 4 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:52 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 7:14 | 12 | 74 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:57 | 4 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q2 13:20 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 10:39 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q2 8:24 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:57 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q2 1:01 | 3 | -17 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:20 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| LA | Q3 9:22 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| PIT | Q3 3:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 31–24 |
| LA | Q3 1:33 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 31–24 |
| PIT | Q4 12:17 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 34–24 |
| LA | Q4 4:38 | 7 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 41–24 |
| LA | Q4 3:46 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 41–24 |
| PIT | Q4 1:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/20 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
0.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.