Closing spread
LA -4
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.136
- 44.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.257
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.88CPOE-1.51
- 38.8%Third-down rate34.3%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.95Points / drive1.35
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/41 | 243 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 8 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 22/38 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tony Brooks-James | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 6 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.42