2019 · Week 10

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

12·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

43

Model margin

+0.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.136
  • 44.3%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.257
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.88CPOE-1.51
  • 38.8%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.35
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–1 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7PIT @ LA24–17PIT
2015 · W3PIT @ STL12–6PIT
2011 · W16STL @ PIT0–27PIT
2007 · W16PIT @ STL41–24PIT
2003 · W8STL @ PIT33–21RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–PIT
PITQ1 15:0030Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 14:4631Punt7–0
LAQ1 13:08519Punt7–0
PITQ1 10:44624Punt7–0
LAQ1 7:26526Punt7–0
PITQ1 4:481173Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 0:343-8Punt7–7
PITQ2 14:16836Punt7–7
LAQ2 9:26623Punt7–7
PITQ2 7:02418Punt7–7
LAQ2 5:32526Punt7–7
PITQ2 2:31234Turnover7–7
LAQ2 2:1538Opp touchdown7–14
LAQ2 1:4430Punt7–14
PITQ2 1:2435Punt7–14
LAQ2 0:57638Missed field goal7–14
LAQ3 15:00524Turnover7–14
PITQ3 13:29818Punt7–14
LAQ3 9:3849Turnover7–14
PITQ3 7:4640Punt7–14
LAQ3 5:431278Field goal10–14
PITQ3 0:1133Punt10–14
LAQ4 14:42418Punt12–14
PITQ4 12:461-5Safety12–14
LAQ4 12:4036Punt12–14
PITQ4 10:461365Field goal12–17
LAQ4 2:46836Turnover on downs12–17
PITQ4 1:2532Punt12–17
LAQ4 1:0143Turnover12–17
PITQ4 0:2000End of half12–17

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/4124302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley12736.10
Malcolm Brown5102.00
Darrell Henderson441.00
Blake Bortles111.00
Jared Goff100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods711950
Gerald Everett812680
Josh Reynolds35490
Tyler Higbee34220
Johnny Mundt1190
Todd Gurley0400
Cooper Kupp0400

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph22/3824210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Samuels14292.10
Tony Brooks-James6111.80
Vance McDonald122.00
Trey Edmunds410.30
Mason Rudolph2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington67901
Diontae Johnson46640
JuJu Smith-Schuster35440
Trey Edmunds23140
Vance McDonald37110
Jaylen Samuels37110
Nick Vannett1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.42