Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 15/22 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| John Clay | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.14
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.