Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutA.J. FeeleyQBrt. thumb· DNP
- DoubtfulSam BradfordQBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJosh GordyCBAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableJustin KingCBShoulder· DNP
Steelers
- OutCurtis BrownCBKnee· DNP
- OutEmmanuel SandersWRFoot· DNP
- OutMaurkice PounceyCAnkle· DNP
- OutMewelde MooreRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBen RoethlisbergerQBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris CarterLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableLaMarr WoodleyLBHamstring· Limited
Win probability
- Steelers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:11 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:43 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 2:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:29 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 13:21 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:25 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 8:44 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:50 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 5:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 3:13 | 7 | 15 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 9:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q3 7:45 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 6:15 | 13 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q4 13:40 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q4 11:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q4 9:58 | 3 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| LA | Q4 8:58 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–20 |
| PIT | Q4 7:42 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| LA | Q4 3:14 | 6 | 38 | End of half | 0–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 15/22 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| John Clay | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.14
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.