Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.042
- 42.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.21CPOE-3.54
- 37.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.54Points / drive2.13
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–1 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. LA are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 17/25 | 230 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/29 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 8 | 12 | 154 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.16