2023 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

24·17

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.2est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRams
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.042
  • 42.3%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.21CPOE-3.54
  • 37.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.13
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–1 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. LA are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W10LA @ PIT12–17PIT
2015 · W3PIT @ STL12–6PIT
2011 · W16STL @ PIT0–27PIT
2007 · W16PIT @ STL41–24PIT
2003 · W8STL @ PIT33–21RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LA
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:38616Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:43627Punt0–0
LAQ1 7:28860Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 3:35737Field goal3–0
LAQ2 14:51729Punt3–0
PITQ2 11:1031Punt3–0
LAQ2 10:07833Field goal3–3
PITQ2 5:56524Punt3–3
LAQ2 3:46888Touchdown3–9
PITQ2 0:1700End of half3–9
LAQ3 15:0010Turnover3–9
PITQ3 14:4437Touchdown10–9
LAQ3 13:191070Touchdown10–17
PITQ3 8:57410Punt10–17
LAQ3 7:161038Missed field goal10–17
PITQ3 1:22559Touchdown17–17
LAQ4 13:4937Punt17–17
PITQ4 12:361090Touchdown24–17
LAQ4 7:20613Punt24–17
PITQ4 5:28848End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett17/2523000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris14533.81
Jaylen Warren6325.31
Calvin Austin III111.00
Kenny Pickett800.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens581070
Diontae Johnson56790
Najee Harris33150
Allen Robinson1170
Jaylen Warren12-10

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford14/2923111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman12665.50
Darrell Henderson18613.41
Matthew Stafford188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua8121540
Tutu Atwell12311
Cooper Kupp27290
Tyler Higbee1370
Darrell Henderson1250
Brycen Hopkins1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.16