Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. SD are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/41 | 352 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.