Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Giants
- OutCorey WebsterCBAnkle· Limited
- OutJason Pierre-PaulDEShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulBrandon JacobsRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTrumaine McBrideCBGroin· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEGroin· Limited
- ProbableTerrell ThomasCBKnee· Limited
Chargers
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBHand· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEKnee· Full
- ProbableKing DunlapTNeck· Full
- ProbableLavelle HawkinsWRKnee· Full
- ProbableLawrence GuyDEToe· Full
- ProbableNick HardwickCNeck· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. SD are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:20 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:47 | 3 | 57 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:11 | 3 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 8:18 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:37 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NYG | Q2 11:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:58 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NYG | Q2 3:49 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 2:35 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| NYG | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 59 | End of half | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| NYG | Q3 14:49 | 7 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 10:45 | 12 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| NYG | Q3 5:06 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 11 | 83 | Field goal | 14–34 |
| NYG | Q4 7:31 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 14–34 |
| LAC | Q4 5:51 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 14–37 |
| NYG | Q4 3:24 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 14–37 |
| LAC | Q4 1:49 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 14–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/32 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 7 | 135 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.