Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. SD are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/32 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 7 | 135 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.