2005 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Chiefs produced the widest margin at 34 points; the tightest finish was Dolphins at Patriots, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Browns start Charlie Frye rather than Trent Dilfer, which the model treats as worth about 3.4 points against them.
Seahawks start Seneca Wallace rather than Matt Hasselbeck, which the model treats as worth about 8.8 points against them.
Colts start Jim Sorgi rather than Peyton Manning, which the model treats as worth about 9.2 points against them.
Cardinals start Josh McCown rather than Kurt Warner, which the model treats as worth about 3.9 points against them.
Colts lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.188, 0.032 clear of second.
Bears have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.167 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Rams at Cowboys, where it rates Rams about 11.0 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
