Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.043
- 43.6%Success rate42.9%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.040
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.01CPOE-1.30
- 46.7%Third-down rate39.6%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.10Points / drive2.06
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/41 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 12 | 128 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 8 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 13/20 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.04