2025 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

18·21

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapGiants
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.6%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.040
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.01CPOE-1.30
  • 46.7%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.06
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W14NYG @ LAC21–37CHARGERS
2017 · W5LAC @ NYG27–22CHARGERS
2013 · W14NYG @ SD14–37CHARGERS
2009 · W9SD @ NYG21–20CHARGERS
2005 · W3NYG @ SD23–45CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NYG
LACQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:371075Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 9:201129Punt0–7
NYGQ1 5:32619Punt0–7
LACQ1 1:56412Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 0:3334Field goal0–10
LACQ2 13:471060Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 8:061635Field goal3–13
LACQ2 1:52970Touchdown10–13
NYGQ2 0:2717End of half10–13
NYGQ3 15:00930Punt10–13
LACQ3 10:50638Punt10–13
NYGQ3 6:5131Punt10–13
LACQ3 5:0934Turnover10–13
NYGQ3 3:3323Touchdown10–21
LACQ3 2:49366Touchdown18–21
NYGQ3 1:27721Punt18–21
LACQ4 12:1638Punt18–21
NYGQ4 11:231139Turnover on downs18–21
LACQ4 5:36821Punt18–21
NYGQ4 2:52716Punt18–21
LACQ4 0:18222End of half18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/4120312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton1212810.71
Justin Herbert12424.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston813981
Keenan Allen57370
Omarion Hampton55370
Oronde Gadsden II23160
Ladd McConkey16110
Tyler Conklin1130
Tucker Fisk0100
Tre Harris0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart13/2011110
Russell Wilson1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo25793.20
Jaxson Dart10545.41
Devin Singletary7284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton34440
Malik Nabers23200
Theo Johnson35171
Wan'Dale Robinson35140
Daniel Bellinger11130
Cam Skattebo22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.04