Closing spread
NYG -5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/33 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 6 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Darcy Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.