Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.106
- 44.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.2%
- +0.86CPOE-3.91
- 40.7%Third-down rate32.5%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.19
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/44 | 258 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 20 | 105 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 8 | 58 | 2 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/36 | 225 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.15