2017 · Week 5

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

27·22

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 76°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapGiants
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.106
  • 44.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +0.86CPOE-3.91
  • 40.7%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.19
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4LAC @ NYG18–21NYG
2021 · W14NYG @ LAC21–37CHARGERS
2013 · W14NYG @ SD14–37CHARGERS
2009 · W9SD @ NYG21–20CHARGERS
2005 · W3NYG @ SD23–45CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NYG
LACQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:33720Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:4333Safety0–2
NYGQ1 8:53516Punt0–2
LACQ1 6:3239Punt0–2
NYGQ1 4:35564Touchdown0–9
LACQ1 2:16962Touchdown7–9
NYGQ2 13:01521Punt7–9
LACQ2 10:373-2Punt7–9
NYGQ2 9:33617Punt7–9
LACQ2 7:5730Punt7–9
NYGQ2 6:5238Punt7–9
LACQ2 5:49323Punt7–9
NYGQ2 4:17310Punt7–9
LACQ2 2:421247Field goal10–9
NYGQ2 0:0600End of half10–9
NYGQ3 15:003-8Punt10–9
LACQ3 13:35540Turnover10–9
NYGQ3 10:56990Touchdown10–16
LACQ3 6:4613105Touchdown17–16
NYGQ3 0:40575Touchdown17–22
LACQ4 13:31627Punt17–22
NYGQ4 11:003-7Punt17–22
LACQ4 9:051053Field goal20–22
NYGQ4 4:503-9Turnover20–22
LACQ4 3:46311Touchdown27–22
NYGQ4 2:581138Turnover27–22
LACQ4 0:4000End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/4425831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon201055.30
Travis Benjamin11414.00
Philip Rivers451.30
Austin Ekeler400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen412670
Melvin Gordon68582
Hunter Henry38421
Austin Ekeler36280
Antonio Gates23230
Tyrell Williams12220
Travis Benjamin23180

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3622521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa8698.61
Wayne Gallman11575.20
Shane Vereen5183.60
Odell Beckham Jr.188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.58971
Roger Lewis12291
Shane Vereen45270
Wayne Gallman55250
Brandon Marshall23150
Jerell Adams11110
Rhett Ellison1290
Sterling Shepard1290
Orleans Darkwa1430
Evan Engram0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.15