Closing spread
LAC -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+11.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.088
- 40.2%Success rate47.4%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.075
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.62CPOE-0.71
- 35.9%Third-down rate45.7%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 1.20Points / drive2.55
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. LAC are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 17/36 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/31 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.21