2021 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Mike Glennon

21·37

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -9.5

Total

44

Model margin

+11.2est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapChargers
  • -0.141EPA / play+0.088
  • 40.2%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.075
  • 5.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.62CPOE-0.71
  • 35.9%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.55
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. LAC are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4LAC @ NYG18–21NYG
2017 · W5LAC @ NYG27–22CHARGERS
2013 · W14NYG @ SD14–37CHARGERS
2009 · W9SD @ NYG21–20CHARGERS
2005 · W3NYG @ SD23–45CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LAC
NYGQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:25422Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:1834Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:17960Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 4:44775Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 1:291055Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 12:0737Punt7–14
LACQ2 10:401173Field goal7–17
NYGQ2 4:1538Punt7–17
LACQ2 2:0434Punt7–17
NYGQ2 1:403-2Punt7–17
LACQ2 0:40475Touchdown7–24
NYGQ2 0:17318End of half7–24
LACQ3 15:00972Field goal7–27
NYGQ3 9:36613Turnover on downs7–27
LACQ3 8:01517Field goal7–30
NYGQ3 5:051116Turnover7–30
LACQ3 0:231141Touchdown7–37
NYGQ4 9:281170Touchdown13–37
LACQ4 4:3336Punt13–37
NYGQ4 3:29848Touchdown21–37
LACQ4 1:1800Turnover21–37
NYGQ4 1:17324Turnover21–37
LACQ4 0:4700End of half21–37

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon17/3619121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley16644.00
Devontae Booker8567.00
Mike Glennon177.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph22660
Saquon Barkley33311
Devontae Booker45280
Sterling Shepard24270
Kenny Golladay28150
Evan Engram1480
John Ross1170
Pharoh Cooper1160
Chris Myarick0100
Darius Slayton0300

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/3127530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler12675.61
Justin Jackson9353.90
Joshua Kelley10333.30
Justin Herbert4194.80
Chase Daniel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Guyton33871
Josh Palmer57661
Mike Williams66610
Austin Ekeler24170
Donald Parham22130
Stephen Anderson11110
Jared Cook2581
Justin Jackson1170
Joshua Kelley1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.54.6%6.4%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

77.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.21