Closing spread
SEA -8.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.156
- 40.0%Success rate49.3%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.098EPA / rush+0.100
- 6.2%Explosive rate11.2%
- 34.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.30Points / drive2.39
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. SEA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:13 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 8:12 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:02 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 1:08 | 15 | 59 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 7:50 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 4:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 3:53 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| HOU | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 0:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| HOU | Q2 0:39 | 6 | 16 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| HOU | Q3 8:23 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| SEA | Q3 3:35 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| HOU | Q4 13:17 | 9 | 52 | Punt | 10–35 |
| SEA | Q4 9:13 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–42 |
| HOU | Q4 5:14 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 10–42 |
| SEA | Q4 3:33 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 10–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/33 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/20 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 141 | 6.4 | 4 |
| Maurice Morris | 8 | 104 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.38