Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.043
- 40.9%Success rate46.2%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.58CPOE+4.51
- 34.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.38Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/35 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 29/39 | 365 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 11 | 15 | 193 | 2 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.84