2025 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

19·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.036
  • 41.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.68CPOE+4.54
  • 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.22
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–1 since 1999

SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. SEA are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W14SEA @ HOU33–13SEA
2017 · W8HOU @ SEA38–41SEA
2013 · W4SEA @ HOU23–20SEA
2009 · W14SEA @ HOU7–34HOU
2005 · W6HOU @ SEA10–42SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:165-3Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:06544Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 7:2838Punt0–7
SEAQ1 5:081164Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 15:00611Punt0–14
SEAQ2 13:03414Punt0–14
HOUQ2 10:3448Punt0–14
SEAQ2 9:10521Turnover0–14
HOUQ2 7:021150Field goal3–14
SEAQ2 2:18636Missed field goal3–14
HOUQ2 0:13229Field goal6–14
HOUQ3 15:0024Turnover6–14
SEAQ3 14:02731Field goal6–17
HOUQ3 10:34621Punt6–17
SEAQ3 8:513-4Opp touchdown12–17
SEAQ3 7:24433Field goal12–20
HOUQ3 5:1547Turnover on downs12–20
SEAQ3 3:11624Touchdown12–27
HOUQ3 0:543-8Punt12–27
SEAQ4 15:00314Punt12–27
HOUQ4 13:1330Punt12–27
SEAQ4 12:38528Turnover12–27
HOUQ4 10:47724Turnover on downs12–27
SEAQ4 8:5523Turnover12–27
HOUQ4 8:231151Turnover on downs12–27
SEAQ4 5:043-5Punt12–27
HOUQ4 4:34852Touchdown19–27
SEAQ4 2:0436End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/4922911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Stroud22512.50
Nick Chubb5163.20
Woody Marks10151.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz910980
Jaylin Noel47770
Nico Collins410270
Woody Marks35201
Xavier Hutchinson14130
Dare Ogunbowale0100
Jayden Higgins0300
Braxton Berrios13-10
Nick Chubb13-50

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/3121311
Cooper Kupp0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III17663.90
Zach Charbonnet12494.12
AJ Barner122.00
Sam Darnold310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba8141231
Elijah Arroyo45420
Cooper Kupp11320
AJ Barner1370
Zach Charbonnet2260
Jake Bobo1130
Tory Horton0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.75