Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.036
- 41.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.68CPOE+4.54
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.05Points / drive2.22
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. SEA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/49 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 9 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/31 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 2 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 14 | 123 | 1 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tory Horton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.75