2021 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

33·13

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · open · astroturf

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapTexans
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.134
  • 43.8%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.086
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.213
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +4.08CPOE-1.54
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.50
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–1 since 1999

SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7HOU @ SEA19–27SEA
2017 · W8HOU @ SEA38–41SEA
2013 · W4SEA @ HOU23–20SEA
2009 · W14SEA @ HOU7–34HOU
2005 · W6HOU @ SEA10–42SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 11:02856Field goal3–7
HOUQ1 6:20518Punt3–7
SEAQ1 3:03797Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 15:001771Field goal10–10
SEAQ2 6:05833Punt10–10
HOUQ2 1:5636Punt16–10
SEAQ2 1:00155Touchdown16–10
HOUQ2 0:52525Field goal16–13
SEAQ3 15:00512Punt16–13
HOUQ3 13:27617Punt16–13
SEAQ3 9:31970Field goal19–13
HOUQ3 4:32929Punt19–13
SEAQ3 1:4033Punt19–13
HOUQ3 0:43725Punt19–13
SEAQ4 11:381160Touchdown27–13
HOUQ4 7:28616Turnover on downs27–13
SEAQ4 6:16250Touchdown33–13
HOUQ4 5:26627Turnover on downs33–13
SEAQ4 4:09617Punt33–13
HOUQ4 1:59971End of half33–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/2826020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny161378.62
Alex Collins7162.30
DeeJay Dallas2168.00
Gerald Everett11313.00
Russell Wilson284.00
Freddie Swain133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett591421
DK Metcalf48430
Will Dissly23380
Penny Hart11160
Gerald Everett22151
Alex Collins1110
Rashaad Penny1110
Freddie Swain0100
Dee Eskridge0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills33/4933110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead11403.60
Royce Freeman11151.40
Davis Mills284.00
Phillip Dorsett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks8111010
Nico Collins510690
Royce Freeman68510
Rex Burkhead44260
Brevin Jordan47261
Chris Conley22200
Davion Davis11170
Phillip Dorsett1390
Antony Auclair1160
Jordan Akins1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.84