Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.134
- 43.8%Success rate37.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.086
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.213
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- +4.08CPOE-1.54
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.50
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/28 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 16 | 137 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 9 | 142 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 33/49 | 331 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Davion Davis | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.84