Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
45
Model margin
-1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.023
- 40.4%Success rate41.3%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.95CPOE+4.52
- 36.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.68
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. SEA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/30 | 402 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 21 | 54 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 224 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 8 | 125 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/41 | 452 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 121 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 6 | 7 | 105 | 2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 5 | 39 | 2 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.94
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.65