2017 · Week 8

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

38·41

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

45

Model margin

-1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.4%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.95CPOE+4.52
  • 36.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.68
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–1 since 1999

SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. SEA are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7HOU @ SEA19–27SEA
2021 · W14SEA @ HOU33–13SEA
2013 · W4SEA @ HOU23–20SEA
2009 · W14SEA @ HOU7–34HOU
2005 · W6HOU @ SEA10–42SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–SEA
HOUQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 12:3834Punt7–0
HOUQ1 11:27427Opp touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 10:08960Touchdown14–7
SEAQ1 6:08864Touchdown14–14
HOUQ1 2:1130Punt14–14
SEAQ1 0:473-4Punt14–14
HOUQ2 14:401184Touchdown21–14
SEAQ2 9:34675Touchdown21–21
HOUQ2 6:0235Punt21–21
SEAQ2 4:25725Punt21–21
HOUQ2 1:53530Punt21–21
SEAQ2 0:0400End of half21–21
SEAQ3 15:00617Punt21–21
HOUQ3 11:241058Field goal24–21
SEAQ3 7:05575Field goal24–24
HOUQ3 4:3623Turnover24–24
SEAQ3 3:4551Field goal24–27
HOUQ3 2:24511Punt24–27
SEAQ4 14:17515Punt24–27
HOUQ4 11:25571Touchdown31–27
SEAQ4 9:09969Touchdown31–34
HOUQ4 5:37275Touchdown38–34
SEAQ4 4:49755Turnover38–34
HOUQ4 2:49520Punt38–34
SEAQ4 1:39385Touchdown38–41
HOUQ4 0:212-10Turnover38–41
SEAQ4 0:0700End of half38–41

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/3040243

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson8678.40
Lamar Miller21542.61
Alfred Blue5214.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins8112241
Will Fuller581252
Lamar Miller33191
Bruce Ellington14130
Stephen Anderson12110
Ryan Griffin12100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson26/4145241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson4307.50
J.D. McKissic461.50
Eddie Lacy600.00
Thomas Rawls6-1-0.20
Tyler Lockett1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett681210
Paul Richardson671052
Doug Baldwin610540
Tanner McEvoy11530
Jimmy Graham45392
Nick Vannett1180
J.D. McKissic1260
Luke Willson0100
Thomas Rawls0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.94
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.65