Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
41
Model margin
-2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.109
- 44.6%Success rate40.7%
- +0.190EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.099
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- +5.19CPOE-3.08
- 38.4%Third-down rate36.4%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 2.17Points / drive1.07
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 5–1 since 1999
SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/23 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 31/49 | 355 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 12 | 110 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.56