2013 · Week 4

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·20

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

41

Model margin

-2.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapTexans
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.109
  • 44.6%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.099
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +5.19CPOE-3.08
  • 38.4%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.07
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 5–1 since 1999

SEA have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7HOU @ SEA19–27SEA
2021 · W14SEA @ HOU33–13SEA
2017 · W8HOU @ SEA38–41SEA
2009 · W14SEA @ HOU7–34HOU
2005 · W6HOU @ SEA10–42SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:4547Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 11:11863Turnover3–0
SEAQ1 6:22539Punt3–0
HOUQ1 2:47690Touchdown3–7
SEAQ2 14:55511Punt3–7
HOUQ2 11:211080Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 6:111-1Turnover3–14
HOUQ2 6:04615Field goal3–17
SEAQ2 3:51432Punt3–17
HOUQ2 1:131257Field goal3–20
SEAQ2 0:0100End of half3–20
SEAQ3 15:0033Punt3–20
HOUQ3 12:25835Punt3–20
SEAQ3 8:17619Punt3–20
HOUQ3 5:0224Turnover3–20
SEAQ3 4:1930Field goal6–20
HOUQ3 3:54629Punt6–20
SEAQ3 0:1115114Touchdown13–20
HOUQ4 7:433-3Punt13–20
SEAQ4 6:0532Turnover13–20
HOUQ4 5:13517Opp touchdown20–20
HOUQ4 2:40737Punt20–20
SEAQ4 0:2000End of half20–20
HOUOT520Punt20–20
SEAOT418Punt20–20
HOUOT813Punt20–20
SEAOT727Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/2312301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17985.81
Russell Wilson10777.70
Robert Turbin341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch33450
Doug Baldwin34390
Golden Tate35170
Sidney Rice15110
Zach Miller1370
Stephen Williams0100
Jermaine Kearse0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub31/4935522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster271023.80
Ben Tate7446.30
Matt Schaub155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson9121100
Owen Daniels611720
Arian Foster68691
Garrett Graham56691
DeAndre Hopkins23270
Keshawn Martin1660
Ben Tate1110
Ryan Griffin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.56