2005 · Week 7

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Billy Volek

10·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh McCown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

45

Model margin

+6.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCardinals
  • -0.113EPA / play-0.074
  • 40.6%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.080EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.308
  • 6.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.36
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TEN @ ARI22–21TEN
2021 · W1ARI @ TEN38–13ARI
2017 · W14TEN @ ARI7–12ARI
2013 · W15ARI @ TEN37–34ARI
2009 · W12ARI @ TEN17–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–ARI
TENQ1 15:00680Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 11:39728Turnover7–0
TENQ1 7:51831Field goal10–0
ARIQ1 2:423-12Punt10–0
TENQ1 1:2146Punt10–0
ARIQ2 14:47438Punt10–0
TENQ2 11:59421Turnover10–0
ARIQ2 10:0136Field goal10–3
TENQ2 9:2333Punt10–3
ARIQ2 8:1932Punt10–3
TENQ2 7:02420Opp touchdown10–10
TENQ2 4:4400Punt10–10
TENQ2 4:44525Punt10–10
TENQ2 2:0028Punt10–10
ARIQ2 0:251-2End of half10–10
ARIQ3 15:00412Punt10–10
TENQ3 13:0537Punt10–10
ARIQ3 11:3720Punt10–10
ARIQ3 11:241-4Punt10–10
ARIQ3 11:1100Punt10–10
TENQ3 10:5248Turnover on downs10–10
ARIQ3 9:1930Punt10–10
TENQ3 7:303-7Punt10–10
ARIQ3 6:431054Field goal10–13
TENQ3 0:2938Punt10–13
ARIQ4 14:5034Punt10–13
TENQ4 13:4048Turnover on downs10–13
ARIQ4 12:1933Punt10–13
TENQ4 11:17743Punt10–13
ARIQ4 7:3734Punt10–13
TENQ4 6:351-4Turnover10–13
ARIQ4 6:30339Touchdown10–20
TENQ4 5:20941Turnover on downs10–20
TENQ4 2:30423Turnover on downs10–20
TENQ4 1:5029Turnover on downs10–20
ARIQ4 1:4231Punt10–20
TENQ4 0:36218End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Volek18/3219811
Matt Mauck8/137100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown10373.70
Jarrett Payton12302.50
Matt Mauck4205.00
Billy Volek133.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown12/2814011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Arrington5306.00
Anquan Boldin2157.50
Marcel Shipp1480.60
Josh McCown122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.25
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.25