Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
45
Model margin
+6.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.074
- 40.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.308
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.36
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 18/32 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Mauck | 8/13 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Mauck | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 12/28 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 14 | 8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.25
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.25