Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.025
- 46.8%Success rate44.7%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.19CPOE+2.33
- 45.2%Third-down rate43.8%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.37Points / drive2.15
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/32 | 289 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James Conner | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 8 | 83 | 2 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 5 | 70 | 2 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/35 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.65