2021 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

38·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

+2.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTitans
  • +0.079EPA / play+0.025
  • 46.8%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.19CPOE+2.33
  • 45.2%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.15
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TEN @ ARI22–21TEN
2017 · W14TEN @ ARI7–12ARI
2013 · W15ARI @ TEN37–34ARI
2009 · W12ARI @ TEN17–20TEN
2005 · W7TEN @ ARI10–20ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TEN
TENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:27870Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:222-15Turnover3–0
ARIQ1 8:3035Touchdown10–0
TENQ1 8:1139Punt10–0
ARIQ1 6:4437Punt10–0
TENQ1 5:1975Punt10–0
ARIQ1 0:311063Touchdown17–0
TENQ2 10:591175Touchdown17–6
ARIQ2 6:501267Touchdown24–6
TENQ2 1:44842Missed field goal24–6
ARIQ2 0:14348End of half24–6
ARIQ3 15:0037Turnover24–6
TENQ3 13:42232Touchdown24–13
ARIQ3 12:55675Touchdown31–13
TENQ3 10:40310Turnover31–13
ARIQ3 9:213-7Punt31–13
TENQ3 8:25628Turnover31–13
ARIQ3 5:18433Touchdown38–13
TENQ3 3:061018Turnover on downs38–13
ARIQ3 0:44618Missed field goal38–13
TENQ4 11:04733Turnover on downs38–13
ARIQ4 8:14830Punt38–13
TENQ4 1:55311End of half38–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray21/3228941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds12635.30
James Conner16533.30
Kyler Murray5204.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins68832
Christian Kirk55702
Rondale Moore45680
Chase Edmonds44430
A.J. Green26250
Demetrius Harris0300
Maxx Williams0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/3521211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17583.40
Ryan Tannehill2178.51
Jeremy McNichols294.50
Mekhi Sargent122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Rogers46620
A.J. Brown48491
Julio Jones36290
Jeremy McNichols34240
Derrick Henry34190
Anthony Firkser34190
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12100
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.65