2017 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

7·12

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Blaine Gabbert

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCardinals
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.129
  • 42.6%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.207
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.43CPOE-4.25
  • 36.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TEN @ ARI22–21TEN
2021 · W1ARI @ TEN38–13ARI
2013 · W15ARI @ TEN37–34ARI
2009 · W12ARI @ TEN17–20TEN
2005 · W7TEN @ ARI10–20ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–ARI
TENQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:26821Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:25734Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:433-5Punt0–0
TENQ1 2:17722Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:0335Punt0–0
TENQ2 12:181045Touchdown7–0
ARIQ2 7:16829Punt7–0
TENQ2 3:064-1Punt7–0
ARIQ2 1:49514Punt7–0
TENQ2 0:49644Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ3 15:00848Field goal7–3
TENQ3 9:3649Turnover on downs7–3
ARIQ3 7:25525Field goal7–6
TENQ3 4:44640Turnover7–6
ARIQ3 1:45972Missed field goal7–6
TENQ4 12:0439Punt7–6
ARIQ4 9:59866Field goal7–9
TENQ4 5:5910Turnover7–9
ARIQ4 5:483-10Field goal7–12
TENQ4 3:4564Punt7–12
ARIQ4 2:003-2Punt7–12
TENQ4 1:2740Turnover on downs7–12
ARIQ4 1:0500End of half7–12

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota16/3115902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray11343.10
Derrick Henry8202.51
Marcus Mariota2115.50
Eric Weems100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker35560
Delanie Walker59420
Corey Davis36290
Rishard Matthews35190
DeMarco Murray23130
Phillip Supernaw0100
Taywan Taylor0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert17/2617800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams20733.60
Chad Williams13333.00
Blaine Gabbert4123.00
D.J. Foster273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald57440
Jermaine Gresham22270
J.J. Nelson23260
Ricky Seals-Jones13200
Kerwynn Williams11150
Jaron Brown25150
Troy Niklas1270
D.J. Foster2260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.28