Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.129
- 42.6%Success rate38.8%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.207
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.43CPOE-4.25
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.73Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 16/31 | 159 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 17/26 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.28