2009 · Week 12

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Matt Leinart

17·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTitans
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.010
  • 45.3%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.71CPOE-2.63
  • 36.7%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.79
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TEN @ ARI22–21TEN
2021 · W1ARI @ TEN38–13ARI
2017 · W14TEN @ ARI7–12ARI
2013 · W15ARI @ TEN37–34ARI
2005 · W7TEN @ ARI10–20ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TEN
ARIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:25436Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 10:33736Punt0–3
TENQ1 7:231389Field goal0–6
ARIQ2 13:28510Punt0–6
TENQ2 11:13426Punt0–6
ARIQ2 7:531073Field goal3–6
TENQ2 1:55960End of half3–6
TENQ3 15:00830Punt3–6
ARIQ3 9:44926Punt3–6
TENQ3 3:56285Touchdown9–13
ARIQ3 3:3700Touchdown10–13
TENQ3 3:2538Punt10–13
ARIQ3 1:41980Touchdown17–13
TENQ4 12:20622Punt17–13
ARIQ4 9:32650Punt17–13
TENQ4 5:58477Turnover17–13
ARIQ4 4:37415Punt17–13
TENQ4 2:371899Touchdown17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Leinart21/3122000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower11555.01
Chris Wells8202.50
Matt Leinart100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin59530
Larry Fitzgerald45340
Early Doucet12280
Steve Breaston46260
Ben Patrick11230
Tim Hightower34230
Chris Wells11210
Jason Wright11100
Anthony Becht0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young27/4338710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson181548.61
Vince Young482.00
Javon Ringer111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt7111281
Nate Washington39680
Bo Scaife510680
Lavelle Hawkins44440
Chris Johnson34320
Jared Cook22290
Alge Crumpler1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.86