Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.010
- 45.3%Success rate40.8%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.71CPOE-2.63
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.0%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.75Points / drive1.79
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 21/31 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 27/43 | 387 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 154 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 11 | 128 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.86