Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.014
- 37.9%Success rate43.0%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- -3.50CPOE+1.10
- 32.0%Third-down rate41.6%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.36Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 21/39 | 265 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 5 | -6 | -1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 10 | 131 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/31 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 81 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Bam Knight | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.20