2025 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

22·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCardinals
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.014
  • 37.9%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -3.50CPOE+1.10
  • 32.0%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. ARI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1ARI @ TEN38–13ARI
2017 · W14TEN @ ARI7–12ARI
2013 · W15ARI @ TEN37–34ARI
2009 · W12ARI @ TEN17–20TEN
2005 · W7TEN @ ARI10–20ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00972Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:541144Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 5:00765Touchdown3–14
TENQ1 0:39424Punt3–14
ARIQ2 13:5539Punt3–14
TENQ2 12:2411Turnover3–14
ARIQ2 12:15427Touchdown3–21
TENQ2 10:4331Field goal6–21
ARIQ2 8:2972Punt6–21
TENQ2 4:53824Punt6–21
ARIQ2 2:0449Punt6–21
TENQ2 1:305-1Turnover on downs6–21
ARIQ2 0:4932Punt6–21
TENQ2 0:0600End of half6–21
TENQ3 15:0038Punt6–21
ARIQ3 12:431370Turnover6–21
TENQ3 4:5139Punt6–21
ARIQ3 3:1031Punt6–21
TENQ3 2:1536Punt6–21
ARIQ3 0:43687Turnover6–21
TENQ4 12:40780Touchdown12–21
ARIQ4 10:2631Punt12–21
TENQ4 8:45861Touchdown19–21
ARIQ4 4:39615Punt19–21
TENQ4 1:53778Field goal22–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward21/3926501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14674.81
Tyjae Spears4143.50
Julius Chestnut133.00
Cam Ward5-6-1.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley5101310
Chig Okonkwo45480
Gunnar Helm45340
Elic Ayomanor24180
Chimere Dike25170
Tony Pollard33110
Tyler Lockett1460
Julius Chestnut0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3122000
Jacoby Brissett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado38127.00
Michael Carter18512.81
Kyler Murray4256.31
Bam Knight4112.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.45980
Trey McBride57410
Michael Carter55220
Michael Wilson24160
Bam Knight11130
Greg Dortch22120
Elijah Higgins22100
Zay Jones2380
Tip Reiman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.20