Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.020
- 41.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.74CPOE+1.14
- 35.3%Third-down rate41.0%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.71Points / drive1.79
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/30 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 36/58 | 402 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 12 | 20 | 150 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 7 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 8 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 3 | 5 | 27 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14