2013 · Week 15

Final / OT

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

37·34

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

43

Model margin

+2.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTitans
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.020
  • 41.6%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +3.74CPOE+1.14
  • 35.3%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.79
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.8 points. TEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TEN @ ARI22–21TEN
2021 · W1ARI @ TEN38–13ARI
2017 · W14TEN @ ARI7–12ARI
2009 · W12ARI @ TEN17–20TEN
2005 · W7TEN @ ARI10–20ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TEN
ARIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 14:02735Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 9:34976Touchdown7–3
TENQ1 4:30868Touchdown7–10
ARIQ2 15:001267Field goal10–10
TENQ2 7:21934Punt10–10
ARIQ2 2:00521Punt10–10
TENQ2 0:5637Punt10–10
ARIQ2 0:27520End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:0000Field goal10–10
ARIQ3 14:5731Field goal13–10
TENQ3 13:321860Touchdown13–17
ARIQ3 6:16772Touchdown20–17
TENQ3 2:1440Punt20–17
ARIQ3 1:2032Punt20–17
TENQ3 0:28833Missed field goal20–17
ARIQ4 11:571160Touchdown27–17
TENQ4 6:502-3Opp touchdown34–17
TENQ4 6:13967Touchdown34–24
ARIQ4 3:12311Punt34–24
TENQ4 2:42872Field goal34–27
ARIQ4 0:4700Touchdown34–27
TENQ4 0:44454Touchdown34–34
ARIQ4 0:1000End of half34–34
TENOT333Turnover34–34
ARIOT631Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3023110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington10717.10
Rashard Mendenhall21693.32
Stepfan Taylor362.00
Carson Palmer2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Ellington45870
Larry Fitzgerald69490
Michael Floyd25330
Brittan Golden12160
Andre Roberts23150
Jake Ballard33131
Rashard Mendenhall1290
Jim Dray1190

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick36/5840242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson13403.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick3227.30
Shonn Greene341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright12201500
Nate Washington79920
Delanie Walker811531
Chris Johnson33511
Kenny Britt36290
Michael Preston35272

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.14