Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
46
Model margin
+3.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.102
- 42.0%Success rate48.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.158EPA / rush+0.023
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.29Points / drive2.30
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:45 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:05 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 0:29 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 9:35 | 14 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 3:07 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:21 | 6 | 49 | End of half | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 12:20 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 10:05 | 6 | 57 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 6:56 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 5:06 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 3:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 2:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q3 1:51 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q4 14:44 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q4 13:24 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| GB | Q4 13:17 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 7–21 |
| CIN | Q4 10:24 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| GB | Q4 8:28 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| CIN | Q4 3:11 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 14–21 |
| GB | Q4 0:56 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/40 | 290 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/34 | 237 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20