Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
46
Model margin
+3.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.102
- 42.0%Success rate48.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.158EPA / rush+0.023
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.29Points / drive2.30
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/40 | 290 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/34 | 237 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20