Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+7.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.124
- 42.9%Success rate44.9%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.018
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.82CPOE+3.74
- 41.6%Third-down rate47.0%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.65Points / drive2.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 15/23 | 185 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 29 | 141 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 7 | 91 | 1 |
| Daniel Coats | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/39 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 6 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.23