2009 · Week 2

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

31·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

+7.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPackers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.124
  • 42.9%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.018
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.82CPOE+3.74
  • 41.6%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CIN @ GB18–27GB
2021 · W5GB @ CIN25–22GB
2017 · W3CIN @ GB24–27GB
2013 · W3GB @ CIN30–34CIN
2005 · W8GB @ CIN14–21CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–GB
GBQ1 15:0064Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:53768Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 8:311173Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 3:2310Turnover7–7
GBQ1 3:06211Touchdown7–14
CINQ1 2:22834Punt7–14
GBQ2 13:4538Punt7–14
CINQ2 11:25411Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 10:213-5Punt14–14
CINQ2 8:312-8Opp touchdown14–21
CINQ2 7:461284Touchdown21–21
GBQ2 1:24622Missed field goal21–21
CINQ3 15:00615Punt21–21
GBQ3 11:45858Turnover21–21
CINQ3 8:161262Touchdown28–21
GBQ3 1:09931Punt28–21
CINQ4 11:51314Punt28–21
GBQ4 9:30412Punt28–21
CINQ4 7:58631Punt28–21
GBQ4 4:023-2Punt28–21
CINQ4 2:3838Field goal31–21
GBQ4 1:56652Field goal31–24
CINQ4 0:4500End of half31–24
GBQ4 0:44447End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer15/2318532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson291414.90
Bernard Scott273.50
Laveranues Coles122.00
Carson Palmer210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson47911
Daniel Coats24260
Brian Leonard22170
Andre Caldwell22160
J.P. Foschi11120
Laveranues Coles2391
Chris Henry1351

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3926110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant14463.31
Aaron Rodgers44310.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver69991
Jermichael Finley47560
Donald Lee46280
James Jones24240
Ryan Grant35220
Jordy Nelson11110
Greg Jennings0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.23