Closing spread
GB -2
Total
50
Model margin
+0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.063
- 48.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- +4.71CPOE+5.14
- 43.8%Third-down rate40.1%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.45Points / drive2.38
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/39 | 344 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 16 | 206 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/38 | 281 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 10 | 159 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.60