2021 · Week 5

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

25·22

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 76°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -2

Total

50

Model margin

+0.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBengals
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.063
  • 48.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +4.71CPOE+5.14
  • 43.8%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.38
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CIN @ GB18–27GB
2017 · W3CIN @ GB24–27GB
2013 · W3GB @ CIN30–34CIN
2009 · W2CIN @ GB31–24CIN
2005 · W8GB @ CIN14–21CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CIN
GBQ1 15:00633Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:5839Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:39215Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:4831Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:0930Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:131051Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 1:15775Touchdown6–7
CINQ2 11:493-1Punt6–7
GBQ2 9:44536Field goal9–7
CINQ2 7:2437Punt9–7
GBQ2 5:55986Touchdown16–7
CINQ2 1:07275Touchdown16–14
GBQ2 0:361-6End of half16–14
CINQ3 15:00332Turnover16–14
GBQ3 13:231156Field goal19–14
CINQ3 5:451145Punt19–14
GBQ3 0:08770Field goal22–14
CINQ4 11:201375Touchdown22–22
GBQ4 3:27457Missed field goal22–22
CINQ4 2:12835Missed field goal22–22
GBQ4 0:21120Missed field goal22–22
CINOT10Turnover22–22
GBOT2-5Missed field goal22–22
CINOT638Missed field goal22–22
GBOT529Field goal25–22

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3934421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones141037.40
AJ Dillon8303.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams11162061
AJ Dillon44491
Marcedes Lewis22340
Randall Cobb23300
Robert Tonyan1280
Aaron Jones4560
Allen Lazard2260
Kylin Hill1150

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow26/3828122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine11595.40
Joe Mixon10333.31
Joe Burrow3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase6101591
Tee Higgins57320
Tyler Boyd45240
Samaje Perine45241
C.J. Uzomah22160
Chris Evans22150
Drew Sample2490
Joe Mixon1120
Auden Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.60