2013 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBengals
  • +0.072EPA / play+0.031
  • 45.4%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.109
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.82CPOE+1.24
  • 40.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.76
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CIN @ GB18–27GB
2021 · W5GB @ CIN25–22GB
2017 · W3CIN @ GB24–27GB
2009 · W2CIN @ GB31–24CIN
2005 · W8GB @ CIN14–21CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CIN
CINQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:2000Touchdown0–13
CINQ1 9:1212Touchdown0–14
GBQ1 9:08634Punt0–14
CINQ1 6:4334Punt0–14
GBQ1 5:093-2Punt0–14
CINQ1 3:53614Turnover0–14
GBQ1 0:4333Field goal3–14
CINQ2 14:57210Turnover3–14
GBQ2 14:014-5Punt3–14
CINQ2 12:4039Opp touchdown10–14
CINQ2 11:223-3Turnover10–14
GBQ2 9:43715Field goal13–14
CINQ2 6:3233Punt13–14
GBQ2 5:351155Field goal16–14
GBQ3 15:001160Touchdown23–14
CINQ3 11:40838Punt23–14
GBQ3 7:18592Touchdown30–14
CINQ3 5:30450Touchdown30–21
GBQ3 3:5037Turnover30–21
CINQ3 3:01412Missed field goal30–21
GBQ3 0:27431Turnover30–21
CINQ4 13:41780Touchdown30–27
GBQ4 10:551149Opp touchdown30–34
GBQ4 3:471360Turnover on downs30–34
CINQ4 1:2100End of half30–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4324412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Johnathan Franklin131037.91
James Starks14553.90
Aaron Rodgers3248.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson89930
Randall Cobb511540
James Jones48341
Johnathan Franklin33230
Andrew Quarless35210
Ryan Taylor23110
Jeremy Ross1280
Jermichael Finley0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/2823521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard10505.01
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10292.91
Andy Dalton430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu45680
Giovani Bernard44490
A.J. Green48461
Marvin Jones34381
Jermaine Gresham45270
Tyler Eifert1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

6.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.69