Closing spread
GB -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.031
- 45.4%Success rate43.4%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.109
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.82CPOE+1.24
- 40.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 2.19Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. CIN are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/43 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Franklin | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 1 |
| James Starks | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/28 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
6.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.69