Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.023
- 39.2%Success rate45.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.032
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- -1.89CPOE-1.27
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.49Points / drive1.77
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/27 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 10 | 13 | 111 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/42 | 313 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geronimo Allison | 6 | 8 | 122 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 9 | 52 | 2 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 8 | 12 | 15 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+5.40
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.96