2017 · Week 3

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

24·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPackers
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.2%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.032
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -1.89CPOE-1.27
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.77
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CIN @ GB18–27GB
2021 · W5GB @ CIN25–22GB
2013 · W3GB @ CIN30–34CIN
2009 · W2CIN @ GB31–24CIN
2005 · W8GB @ CIN14–21CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–GB
CINQ1 15:001067Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 9:40727Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 7:46628Punt7–7
GBQ1 3:413-7Punt7–7
CINQ1 2:18960Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 12:29445Opp touchdown21–7
GBQ2 10:20614Punt21–7
CINQ2 6:00529Punt21–7
GBQ2 2:403-4Punt21–7
CINQ2 1:4138Punt21–7
GBQ2 0:3843Punt21–7
GBQ3 15:00974Touchdown21–14
CINQ3 9:54412Punt21–14
GBQ3 7:373-9Punt21–14
CINQ3 5:23517Missed field goal21–14
GBQ3 2:41847Field goal21–17
CINQ4 14:43419Punt21–17
GBQ4 12:37613Punt21–17
CINQ4 9:431157Field goal24–17
GBQ4 3:461371Touchdown24–24
CINQ4 0:1700End of half24–24
CINOT35Punt24–24
GBOT470Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2721220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18623.40
Giovani Bernard3279.00
Jeremy Hill7233.30
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green10131111
Joe Mixon33390
Tyler Kroft34280
Giovani Bernard22121
Tyler Boyd11110
Jeremy Hill1160
Brandon LaFell1250

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4231331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery12352.90
Aaron Rodgers4235.80
Jamaal Williams166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geronimo Allison681220
Davante Adams36600
Jordy Nelson69522
Lance Kendricks23521
Ty Montgomery812150
Martellus Bennett34120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.40
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.96