2025 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

18·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapPackers
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.122
  • 46.4%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.274
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.28CPOE+5.62
  • 44.3%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.39
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W5GB @ CIN25–22GB
2017 · W3CIN @ GB24–27GB
2013 · W3GB @ CIN30–34CIN
2009 · W2CIN @ GB31–24CIN
2005 · W8GB @ CIN14–21CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–GB
GBQ1 15:001147Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:3931Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:391171Field goal0–3
CINQ2 14:15517Punt0–3
GBQ2 12:2634Punt0–3
CINQ2 10:1835Punt0–3
GBQ2 8:12977Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 4:053-2Punt0–10
GBQ2 2:50541Punt0–10
CINQ2 1:06744Missed field goal0–10
CINQ3 15:001872Touchdown7–10
GBQ3 4:46966Touchdown7–17
CINQ4 14:56850Field goal10–17
GBQ4 10:43662Touchdown10–24
CINQ4 7:331154Touchdown18–24
GBQ4 4:11641Field goal18–27
CINQ4 1:52427Missed field goal18–27
GBQ4 0:4100End of half18–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco29/4521920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown9424.70
Samaje Perine6162.70
Ja'Marr Chase1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase1012941
Tee Higgins58620
Noah Fant44270
Samaje Perine23160
Tanner Hudson45101
Chase Brown2270
Andrei Iosivas1450
Drew Sample12-20

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love19/2625911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs18935.22
Jordan Love7263.70
Matthew Golden2168.00
Emanuel Wilson3113.70
Bo Melton133.00
Savion Williams133.00
Chris Brooks111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matthew Golden35860
Josh Jacobs55570
Romeo Doubs59550
Tucker Kraft22431
Dontayvion Wicks22150
Luke Musgrave1270
Emanuel Wilson11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.52