Closing spread
GB -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.122
- 46.4%Success rate48.0%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.274
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.28CPOE+5.62
- 44.3%Third-down rate48.8%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.93Points / drive2.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. GB are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 29/45 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 12 | 94 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/26 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 5 | 86 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.52