Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
43
Model margin
-0.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. STL are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/31 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 165 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.