2025 · Week 7

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

35·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.039
  • 52.2%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.110
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.65CPOE-1.56
  • 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.30
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W13JAX @ LA7–37RAMS
2017 · W6LA @ JAX27–17RAMS
2013 · W5JAX @ STL20–34RAMS
2009 · W6STL @ JAX20–23JAX
2005 · W8JAX @ STL21–24RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:331457Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 6:3847Punt7–0
LAQ1 5:00753Touchdown14–0
JAXQ1 1:511020Punt14–0
LAQ2 11:1130Punt14–0
JAXQ2 9:59638Missed field goal14–0
LAQ2 6:58643Touchdown21–0
JAXQ2 4:371058Turnover on downs21–0
LAQ2 1:45214End of half21–0
LAQ3 15:0046Punt21–0
JAXQ3 13:501243Turnover on downs21–0
LAQ3 10:37513Punt21–0
JAXQ3 8:10764Turnover on downs21–0
LAQ3 5:3434Punt21–0
JAXQ3 4:424-6Punt21–0
LAQ3 2:3536Punt21–0
JAXQ3 0:5330Punt21–0
LAQ3 0:27953Touchdown28–0
JAXQ4 11:11580Touchdown28–7
LAQ4 9:061026Touchdown35–7
JAXQ4 4:581351Turnover on downs35–7
LAQ4 1:4900End of half35–7

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3318250

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams12544.50
Blake Corum12373.10
Matthew Stafford210.50
Jimmy Garoppolo3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colby Parkinson33470
Davante Adams58353
Terrance Ferguson13311
Tyler Higbee36190
Xavier Smith23150
Kyren Williams23110
Jordan Whittington2490
Blake Corum1160
Konata Mumpfield1151
Davis Allen1140

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/4829610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne8445.50
Bhayshul Tuten5224.40
Trevor Lawrence2189.00
Parker Washington3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington410520
Dyami Brown24500
Brian Thomas Jr.37310
Tim Patrick11220
Hunter Long23160
Travis Etienne13110
Johnny Mundt1490
LeQuint Allen Jr.1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75