Closing spread
LA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.039
- 52.2%Success rate44.5%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.110
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.65CPOE-1.56
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.67Points / drive2.30
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/33 | 182 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 35 | 3 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/48 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75