2017 · Week 6

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

27·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.020
  • 43.3%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.071
  • 11.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.32CPOE-2.97
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.81
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7LA @ JAX35–7RAMS
2021 · W13JAX @ LA7–37RAMS
2013 · W5JAX @ STL20–34RAMS
2009 · W6STL @ JAX20–23JAX
2005 · W8JAX @ STL21–24RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–JAX
LAQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 14:46175Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 14:3539Punt7–7
JAXQ1 12:4549Punt7–7
LAQ1 10:2338Field goal10–7
JAXQ1 8:54475Touchdown10–14
LAQ1 6:513-9Punt10–14
JAXQ1 5:1430Punt10–14
LAQ1 3:38761Touchdown17–14
JAXQ1 0:22524Punt17–14
LAQ2 12:3934Punt17–14
JAXQ2 11:1444Punt17–14
LAQ2 9:26522Punt17–14
JAXQ2 6:5035Punt17–14
LAQ2 5:46528Punt17–14
JAXQ2 3:5631Opp touchdown24–14
JAXQ2 2:25740Missed field goal24–14
JAXQ3 15:00628Punt24–14
LAQ3 11:45443Turnover24–14
JAXQ3 10:16829Field goal24–17
LAQ3 5:16828Punt24–17
JAXQ3 1:131039Turnover24–17
LAQ4 11:5540Punt24–17
JAXQ4 9:58416Punt24–17
LAQ4 7:401157Field goal27–17
JAXQ4 2:32744Missed field goal27–17
LAQ4 1:0700End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff11/2112410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley231165.00
Malcolm Brown3175.70
Jared Goff492.30
Tavon Austin200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods57700
Cooper Kupp23350
Sammy Watkins14110
Todd Gurley1140
Gerald Everett1341
Tyler Higbee1300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles23/3524111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette211306.21
Blake Bortles2199.50
Marqise Lee11717.00
Chris Ivory231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee510830
Chris Ivory910741
Allen Hurns33370
Ben Koyack11210
James O'Shaughnessy23110
Leonard Fournette2280
Keelan Cole1270
Marcedes Lewis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.01