Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.020
- 43.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.131EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.071
- 11.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.32CPOE-2.97
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 2.27Points / drive1.81
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 11/21 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 116 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/35 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01