Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 30/43 | 335 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 33 | 133 | 4.0 | 3 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 9 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.