Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulJames ButlerSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRuvell MartinWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableAnthony SmithSAchilles· Limited
- ProbableC.J. Ah YouDEIllness· DNP
- ProbableLeonard LittleDEIllness· DNP
- ProbableKyle BollerQBConcussion· Full
Jaguars
- OutAdam SewardLBGroin· DNP
- OutGreg PetersonDTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableJustin DurantLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableMaurice WilliamsGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableScott StarksCBHip· Full
- QuestionableSean ConsidineSGroin· Limited
- ProbableTyron BrackenridgeCBIllness· DNP
- ProbableGreg JonesRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableJohn HendersonDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableMike ThomasWRRibs· Full
- ProbableRashean MathisCBHip· Full
- ProbableTra ThomasTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:10 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LA | Q1 7:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q1 5:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q1 3:40 | 7 | 58 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q2 11:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 7:01 | 15 | 56 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 37 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LA | Q3 12:22 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q3 10:31 | 14 | 33 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LA | Q3 3:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 52 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LA | Q3 0:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–6 |
| JAX | Q4 14:13 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LA | Q4 8:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q4 6:54 | 5 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 17–13 |
| JAX | Q4 4:36 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:53 | 7 | 69 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| JAX | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| JAX | OT | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 30/43 | 335 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 33 | 133 | 4.0 | 3 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 9 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.