Closing spread
STL -11
Total
40.5
Model margin
+8.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. STL are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 9/19 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
| Chad Henne | 7/13 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 5 | 9 | 136 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.88
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.