Closing spread
STL -11
Total
40.5
Model margin
+8.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jaguars
- OutDwayne GratzCBAnkle· DNP
- OutDwight LowerySConcussion· DNP
- OutJeremy MinceyDEConcussion· DNP
- OutMarcedes LewisTECalf· DNP
- OutMike BrownWRBack· DNP
- OutStephen BurtonWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableCecil ShortsWRGroin· DNP
- DNPJohn LotuleleiLBNot Injury Related
- ProbableDenard RobinsonWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableGeno HayesLBHip· Limited
- ProbableAlan BallCBGroin· Full
- ProbableRoy MillerDTShoulder· Full
Rams
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulCortland FinneganCBThigh· DNP
- DoubtfulWilliam HayesDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMatt ConrathDTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableTrumaine JohnsonCBIllness· DNP
- ProbableBrandon McGeeCBThigh· Full
- ProbableWill WitherspoonLBThigh· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. STL are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:28 | 4 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:31 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:30 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:09 | 3 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 3:08 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:13 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q2 12:03 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| LA | Q2 11:42 | 1 | 16 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q2 11:34 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q2 9:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q2 7:59 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q2 5:38 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q2 0:27 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 10–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q3 13:56 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| LA | Q3 12:29 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q3 9:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q3 5:14 | 6 | 53 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:22 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| JAX | Q4 14:47 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| LA | Q4 10:22 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| JAX | Q4 5:45 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 20–34 |
| LA | Q4 4:07 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 9/19 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
| Chad Henne | 7/13 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 5 | 9 | 136 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.88
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.