2021 · Week 13

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

7·37

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -14

Total

48

Model margin

+5.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRams
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.082
  • 44.0%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -4.53CPOE-0.40
  • 35.6%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.32
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. LA are 6-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7LA @ JAX35–7RAMS
2017 · W6LA @ JAX27–17RAMS
2013 · W5JAX @ STL20–34RAMS
2009 · W6STL @ JAX20–23JAX
2005 · W8JAX @ STL21–24RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–LA
LAQ1 15:00512Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 12:2023Turnover0–3
LAQ1 11:46432Touchdown0–10
JAXQ1 10:2536Punt0–10
LAQ1 8:53726Punt0–10
JAXQ1 4:551461Touchdown7–10
LAQ2 13:23957Field goal7–13
JAXQ2 7:413-2Punt7–13
LAQ2 6:12511Punt7–13
JAXQ2 3:4144Punt7–13
LAQ2 2:151055Field goal7–16
JAXQ2 0:19311End of half7–16
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt7–16
LAQ3 14:01485Touchdown7–23
JAXQ3 11:43738Turnover on downs7–23
LAQ3 8:361067Touchdown7–30
JAXQ3 3:27521Turnover7–30
LAQ3 1:271041Touchdown7–37
JAXQ4 10:521031Punt7–37
LAQ4 4:50432Punt7–37
JAXQ4 2:15519End of half7–37

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence16/2814500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde9242.71
James Robinson8243.00
Trevor Lawrence4102.50
C.J. Beathard122.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell45620
Laviska Shenault Jr.35300
James O'Shaughnessy26130
Marvin Jones23110
James Robinson14110
Jaydon Mickens22100
Tavon Austin1290
Carlos Hyde11-10

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/3829530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel241215.01
Mekhi Sargent252.50
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp8101291
Tyler Higbee56480
Van Jefferson68411
Ben Skowronek12350
Odell Beckham Jr.25281
Sony Michel3480
Kendall Blanton1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.02