Closing spread
LA -14
Total
48
Model margin
+5.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.082
- 44.0%Success rate46.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.53CPOE-0.40
- 35.6%Third-down rate42.6%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.33Points / drive2.32
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. LA are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/28 | 145 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/38 | 295 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 24 | 121 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 10 | 129 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.02